What The Data Says: Liverpool 2-1 Brighton

Never ever, ever, ever do it easy, do they? A first half as dismal as any I can recall in recent years – being played off the park by a tremendously sharp and well drilled Fabian Hurzeler outfit. Yet, they found a way to complete the job… as is usually the case.

Arne Slot became the first ever Liverpool manager to achieve the feat of 8 wins in his first 10 league games as the Reds reclaimed their crown at the summit of the league. Premature reminders of the Bournemouth score flirted around Anfield throughout, though they proved to be anything but premature the end; Bournemouth sensationally held on against City to dish out Guardiola’s first league defeat since last December. I watched Arsenal’s uninspiring defeat at the hands of the Geordies in the pub beforehand, and perhaps I am remaining generous to label it as merely ‘uninspiring’. The ‘injury crisis’ narrative is unfounded, take out Liverpool’s first choice number ten and left back and such collapse would not occur.

Title races provide little benefits in the way of health, that’s for sure. A 2nd of November fixture which resembled a do-or-die clash at the end of April, or at least that’s what Anfield created. After venting serious frustration and groans during a turgid first half, a sea of unwavering hostility and noise awaited the Seagulls in the second. “Where’s your famous atmosphere?” was the cry from the travelling Brighton fans on half an hour – their side soon received the brunt of it and failed to subsist. A roar like no other when Mohamed Salah rifled his effort into the top left corner.

Brighton sensed that they were able to disrupt Liverpool’s rhythm with a compact shape and with tenacity off the ball, in combination with genuine class and sharpness on the ball in the opening 45. LFC’s passing remained wildly frustrating throughout; even the likes of the technically-sublime Trent Alexander-Arnold and Alexis Mac Allister continually struggled to create openings and gave the ball away cheaply. Kadioglu’s strike on 45 reflected the story of a dismal first half from our perspective – Brighton’s wide men enjoyed miles of open space after beating Liverpool’s 4-2-4 press, whilst also possessing the central advantage when they went past Szoboszlai.

To their immense credit, Albion’s out-of-possession shape was vastly more successful than what it resembled in the midweek cup defeat, where Brighton’s back four were at sea for large parts. In my view, a tweak to this as opposed to the more offensive 4-2-4 shape would be beneficial for Slot’s side, though who am I to question the man who is statistically Liverpool’s strongest starting manager in history. A compact 4-4-2 nullified all of the Reds’ threat, and that should serve as an emergency. Naturally, as has been the case during his remarkable start to the season, the front two (Rutter and Welbeck) were tasked with dealing with Gravenberch and limiting his space to manoeuvre with his signature turn – a job they managed fairly well though the Dutchman still produced some encouraging flashes. The Young German coach’s game plan worked to perfection before the dramatic comeback: baiting Liverpool to press high with the four, creating 2v1 overloads on Gakpo down the left before isolating Trent and Tsimikas in fast-paced transitions.

Of course, they didn’t completely nullify the Reds: after all, Slot’s men registered 16 shots (8 on target), 31 touches in the box with an xG of 1.7. For all the talk of Liverpool not being able to play through the Seagulls’ press, however, the work of the opponents on the ball was just as fine.

As evidenced above, Kadioglu was pivotal for Brighton as they repeatedly broke down their right hand side much more often than down the left – the Turkish star, who shone at the recent European Championships, acted as a bundle of energy throughout and deserved his fabulous strike which provided Kelleher with no chance. Brighton managed 13 shots, with 5 on target, an open play xG of 0.76, and 24 box touches. These numbers commend Liverpool’s defense and showcase Slot’s team’s excellence out of possession this season, their 0.78 xGA per 90 minutes is unmatched in the league.

Tsimikas, Van Dijk and Konate formed a three in central defence, with Gravenberch naturally slightly ahead, which was in many ways the architect of their early struggles. It was incredibly simple for Brighton’s central players to cut the passing line into Gravenberch, forcing Van Dijk to play several aimless and extremely hopeful long balls which would be swept up. The changing of the dynamic helped with the double pivot, as did the introduction of the in-form Curtis Jones, yet sometimes football simply boils down to intensity and will-to-win, and Saturday afternoon’s second half was one of those.

I’d have replaced nine of them, other than Nunez and Kelleher in that first half, if I for whatever reason was handed the opportunity. Though, sometimes all that is needed is 45 minutes of Joe Gomez. Despite the unwavering fears that the stupendous Ibrahima Konate’s injury looked incredibly serious, with the lad to the next of me in the Anfield Road end repeatedly saying “He’s f#cked his shoulder,” Ibou himself confirmed that the knock isn’t serious and the French central defender was pictured in today’s training session. The formidable CB pairing’s aerial duel numbers are now phenomenal, by the way: Konate’s win rate is a sensational 82% whilst Van Dijk also possesses an imposing 73%. Out of every player to contest 20+ aerial duels in the Premier League this season, Ibrahima Konaté (26/32) has the best success rate (81.25%). Out of every player to contest 40+ aerial duels in the Premier League this season, Virgil van Dijk (37/51) has the best success rate (72.55%).

Side note: how well did Tsimikas recover after the blunder for the goal? Incredibly involved, and effective:

Kostas Tsimikas Performance Map – Via XFB Analytics

More strength was needed in midfield, a similar feat was required up front; Liverpool were desperate for three points as news of a Bournemouth second filtered through Anfield. Liverpool started looking sharper and carrying the ball with purpose with Diaz’s introduction. Anfield remained roaring, demanding, and relentless – almost forcing the equaliser. It came: a cross from Gakpo found its mark, bringing us level and igniting hope, relief, and belief. Confidence surged through Liverpool veins – we were utterly relentless both on-and-off the ball for the next ten. The Egyptian King proceeded to do his thing, netting a trademark Salah finish. It’s quite a trademark goal to own, isn’t it? Not seen many Anfield roars and explosions quite like that, it was electric. An almighty explosion of passion right in front of the Kop, reminding me of the scenes when Alexis Mac Allister netted a Gerrard-esque screamer against Sheffield United last season to secure the late winner. 55 direct goal involvements for Liverpool since the start of last season and 132 in 132 games for the Reds at Anfield. Don’t take him for granted!

The small matter of Xabi’s return to Anfield tomorrow, then. Leverkusen haven’t reflected the same unstoppable, undefeatable force as last campaign, though Bayer possess the quality and fire power to blow Liverpool out of the water if the same first half display is produced as on Saturday. Robertson, Diaz and Jones will all come in for me, with Tsimikas, Gakpo and Szoboszlai making way. LFC have a slight comfort blanket due to their three wins from three, yet complacency cannot be prevalent. Despite resembling a slower and older side this year, given their experienced elevens, the likes of the explosive Jeremie Frimpong can haunt the Reds should they elect to remain sluggish from the off.

Predicted Leverkusen lineup: Hradecky, Hincapie, Tah, Tapsoba, Grimaldo, Andrich, Xhaka, Frimpong, Wirtz, Terrier, Boniface.

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